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Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?:new evidence

机译:高利率是否在投机性攻击中捍卫货币?:新证据

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摘要

Kraay [Kraay, A., 2003. Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? Journal of International Economics 59, 297-321.] documents the lack of any systematic association between monetary policy and the outcome of a speculative attack. This paper revisits Kraay's work and modifies it by introducing an improved measure of monetary policy and an additional country-specific fundamental, short-term corporate debt, to capture balance sheet vulnerabilities emphasized by the recent currency crises literature. The results show that for low levels of short-term corporate debt, raising interest rates lowers the probability of a successful attack. This effect decreases and eventually reverses for higher levels of debt. These findings contrast earlier empirical evidence and imply a fundamental reconsideration of the role of monetary policy during currency crises.
机译:Kraay [Kraay,A.,2003。高利率在投机性攻击中捍卫货币吗?国际经济杂志59,297-321。]记录了货币政策与投机性攻击结果之间缺乏任何系统的关联。本文回顾了Kraay的工作,并通过引入改进的货币政策措施和其他特定于国家的基本短期公司债务来对其进行修改,以捕捉最近的货币危机文献所强调的资产负债表脆弱性。结果表明,对于短期公司债务较低的水平,提高利率会降低成功攻击的可能性。这种影响会降低,最终会随着债务的增加而逆转。这些发现与早期的经验证据形成鲜明对比,暗示着对货币政策在货币危机期间的作用进行根本性的重新考虑。

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